Futures: Charles Schwab, Barak Obama and me

I understand completely the importance of optimism about the future when it comes to social, political or economic change. One has to believe in positive future outcomes if one is to invest time, money, effort and hope in projects that will not come to fruition for months or years. I get it and, more importantly, I buy into the proposition that tomorrow grants us an opportunity to better ourselves and the world. So why do I find it irksome when companies hype the future, or when commentators pounce on some obscure economic indicator and turn it into the harbinger of prosperity? The new Charles Schwab ad says "Dwelling on the past won't help my future. Do something about it." Very paternal, Chuck. 

I think most people's problems from the economic downturn are not grounded in the past; rather, it's the present and very immanent future that most of us are contending with: drained retirement accounts, loss of jobs, cut hours, lack of available credit... While there is no doubting that years from now we'll look back at the 2008-2??? depression and laugh or grimace, but now is the time to think clearly about what we should be doing with dwindling, threatened or otherwise reduced resources. Pretending, as suggested by the Charles Schwab ad, that we're out of the woods and that our reluctance to go whole hog back into the stock market, or supermarket for that matter, is based on an irrational reaction to past events is foolish to say the least. 

Prudence is called for. While it might be tempting to bet on the stock market or take out more credit to get out of our current financial doldrums, we should be looking instead for sustainable solutions. Americans should not re-adopt their role as the world's economic engine. As we are finding out, the growth in the world's economy from 1995-2007 was largely based on consumers and companies overextending themselves on credit, on insane financial commodities and an irrational belief that real estate can leap in value year after year...forever. What a difference a year makes, no? How about more sustainable investments: a car that uses less fuel, appliances that use less energy, solar tiles for your home, community investments that bring quality of life returns, or an investment in education? These things won't make you rich, but some will allow you to save money and others will contribute to a genuine sense of well-being, which is what all the over-leveraging lo these many years was supposed to do, right? Here's to hope!   

An interesting take on first quarter numbers

This is an excerpt from Warren Brussee's blog. He's a smart guy, one of the few who saw that the world's financial system was in hot water long before other economists and bloggers like me, but he does have a book to sell, so take his prognostications with that in mind.

THE MASSES ARE MOBILIZING

 

In my book, I predicted that by 2012 people would begin to actively and sometimes violently protest against what they perceived as inequalities.  We are already seeing inklings of these protest movements.

 

In 1933, in “The Nation,” James Steele wrote about how 10,000 people protested against the eviction of Cleveland resident John Sparanga.  Once again, groups in Cleveland have rallied outside the Cuyahoga County courthouse, calling for a foreclosure freeze.  In Boston, the Neighborhood Assistance Corporation of America protested in front of Countrywide Financial offices.  The Mabuhay Alliance, joined by the Mexican-American Political Alliance, staged a protest in front of Countrywide’s San Diego office.  In Los Angeles and Oakland, groups like ACORN have organized low-income homeowners.  Contra Costa Interfaith Supporting Community Organization (CCISCO) protested in front of several Antioch bank branches, forcing the banks to renegotiate their members’ loans.

 

Such protests have not just been limited to foreclosures.  Groups have marched on the homes of those receiving the bonuses from AIG.  In typical mass protest confusion, the protests centered on homes where the AIG employees had already agreed to give up their bonuses!

 

And that is the problem!  Mass protests include many people who will not be rational.  It is only a matter of time until someone in these protest groups steps over the line, or they are confronted by a police team that loses their cool and becomes physical in their response.  A Vietnam-era Kent State confrontation scenario seems inevitable.  Once that happens, we could see total chaos as police and communities refuse to take on protest groups and pressure builds to stop foreclosing on people. Our financial institutions will not know what to do with such a situation.  And corporate leaders who are receiving huge bonuses or salaries will find themselves under ever-increasing pressures from stock holders and others who feel that these corporate leaders are prospering while others are hurting.

 

The Obama team will really start earning their incomes if such protests become commonplace and violent.

 

HOUSING   The January 2009 Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city housing index dropped a record 19% versus a year ago.  This index has dropped 29% from its peak in 2006; but housing prices must drop another 15% to 20% to get down to their historical inflation-adjusted level.

 

The New York Times and others have reported that banks are sometimes going through the foreclosure process but stopping at the last minute, insisting that the property owners still own the homes and must pay taxes and do required repairs. Banks are doing this on homes that have been vandalized and are largely not saleable.  Although the exact number of homes involved are not known, they are included in the 700,000 estimate I included in my mid-March update.

 

THE ECONOMIC NUMBERS   Recently, some economic numbers have given substance to those who believe that the downturn has bottomed out and “happy days” will be starting soon.  But it behooves an investor to do some examination of these numbers.

 

For example, in February, new home sales rose 4.7% versus January sales.  However, putting this in historical context, February’s new home sales were the second-worst on record and well below last year’s numbers.  It’s just that January numbers were so bad that February numbers look better in comparison.

 

Consumer spending in February was up for the second month in a row.  However, looking at the numbers for the past year, for the first six months of that year, the monthly change in consumer spending averaged +0.42% per month.  For the most recent six months the average change was -0.35%.

 

Perhaps a better view of the whole economy is reflected in the job benefits numbers. The Labor Department reported that initial jobless benefit claims rose last week, and those continuing to receive benefits set a record for the ninth straight week.  This means that laid off workers are having a harder time finding jobs.  The proportion of the workforce that is unemployed is the highest since 1983 and almost double what it was a year ago.  And these data do not include the almost 1.5 million receiving extended unemployment compensation.. 

 

THE STOCKMARKET   With the recent jump in the market, the S&P 500 price/dividend ratio is now at 37.  This is well above its historical median of 26 and my entry price goal of 17.2.  However, even with the recent rise in the markets, the S&P 500 is down 11% for the year.

Return of the artisan

Considering the dismal unemployment data out today, and the even more dismal predictions, we find ourselves at a juncture where there will be a nearly unprecedented number of people out of work. Depending the unemployment figure you are looking at, we are approaching the same number of people that were out of work at the height of the depression in the 1930s (12.5 million today vs. 14 million in 1933--the worst year for unemployment during the depression). 

With so many people out of work, and so few available jobs, we may see the rise of a kind of neo-artisan. During the months that it can take to find work, there are many of us relying on our secondary skills (gardening, cooking, music, art, writing, foreign language ability, etc.) to get by. I would predict that many of the closet artists, writers and musicians would tap into the skill set that was deemed "unprofitable" during the go-go economy of recent years and find ways to make it work for them. In developing these skills, making contacts, gaining confidence and buyers along the way, bankers may find value in throwing pots, insurance adjusters might instead make their dough by baking and former Wall Street Execs could make a respectable living playing the blues. 

Who knows? But I would bet that we will see a flourishing of artisanal entrepreneurs and a proliferation of talent in the months and years to come. So, if you are looking for work, or fulfillment, begin nurturing that hidden talent, and, when you have something that someone else might buy, hang a real and/or virtual sign out and see what happens--you might surprise yourself. 

The photo is of "Joe the potter" at Horseshoe Mountain Pottery ; see also John Sanchez at Sanchez Art Werk and guitarist Brendan Burns for examples of folks who have been putting their talents to work for them for a number of years now and using the internet to their advantage.

Drought in the golden state

Here is another argument for establishing community gardens. 

"The almond orchards are beginning to bloom in California’s Central Valley, the vast swath of fertile, flat land that runs up and down the middle of the state. Bees are pollinating the rows of flowering trees, and the harvest will shape up over the coming months. But for many farmers, one crucial thing is missing from this picture – water.

The US Bureau of Reclamation, which manages water allocation in arid regions, announced last week it will not provide vital irrigation to Central Valley farmers this year because of drought, and the California State Water Project expects to meet only 15 percent of water requests.

“That’s unheard-of,” says Jim Jasper, an almond farmer in Newman, Calif. “We’ve never seen a zero allocation for water.” Many growers here are destroying older and less productive trees to conserve water for other crops.

The University of California estimates that the drought may cause 847,000 acres to go unplanted this year, with income reductions of more than $2 billion and the loss of 70,000 jobs" (Christian Science Monitor 2/26/09).

With climate change, the precipitous fall in all commodity prices, the flight of cheap immigrant labor and the difficulty in securing credit, relying on the agricultural pipeline to continue supplying our supermarket shelves with fresh produce, dairy and grain may be a mistake. It makes sense to begin appropriating community plots now and planning for spring planting. This can do three things immediately: 1) provide local food security, 2) improve local nutrition, and 3) provided your locality successfully bids for federal relief funds, community gardens can create paying jobs. For more information on community gardens see http://www.mrsc.org/Subjects/Parks/comgarden.asp

The end is near...er

The economic crisis ranges in titles from the hilarious "economic shitstorm" to the more somber "global economic readjustment." I like the former because it is descriptive of the havoc the crisis wrecks in individual lives. It captures the anxiety, worry and, ultimately, the sense that what we're experiencing is so profound, nothing will ever be the same again. The latter sounds like an economist's euphemism that obscures more than it describes. And it undoubtedly does just that. "Readjustment" is similar to the more familiar and hated "restructuring." When the unemployed are feeling glib they say "I was restructured" to that they were laid off. That said, I like "readjustment" because, while it is not as colorful, it gets to something deeper: something went wrong with the fundamentals of our (really, the world's) market economy.

Whether you are talking about the stocks that make up you 401k, the value of your home or the grievous errors in judgment that your banker made in the past several years, the issue at stake is the fact that, at some point, the wheels left the pavement. That is, the value of the stock, home or bundled securities simply did not reflect its real market value. Profitless companies were able to sell shares of stock for more value than they really held.  Houses were sold at inflated prices to customers who could not afford them; this was based on the crazy logic that they would forever increase in value. And the bundled securities, or derivative, market was a ponzi scheme based on misinformation (perhaps willful ignorance) and speculation. 

In fact, that is what the "readjustment" is all about: it is a period where values finally begin to reflect reality. Until we can eliminate the very human tendency to speculate and act according to expectations (which can be based on everything from very solid information to wishful thinking to calculated lies), markets will never be just markets. They, like the commodities they trade, will always hold a fetishistic attraction for us: "it's more than just a home/stock/derivative, it's an investment."   

As things get worse (a mantra we've heard a million times now, followed by "before they get better"), they are also getting more real: things are readjusting. Your home is finding a market value for which a loan can be had--the same goes for the stocks in your retirement fund and the bundled securities held by your bank. Of course, this is little consolation if you've lost your job/home/savings. And it is high price to pay for the trillions of little lies and bubble-headed fantasies that have landed us in this mess. Unfortunately, most of us are complicit to some degree in the collective delusion that washed over the industrialized world for the last decade and a half. 

Just as speculation and loose financial practices can inflate value, it goes the other way as well. Expectation of future losses can drive values below the point at which they would normally reside. Time is the only remedy...we've got to wait it out. The best we can hope for is an economic system that, post-readjustment, is characterized by more honesty, transparency and rationality. So, as we press on through this shitstorm together, just remember that, without a doubt, the end is nearer.   

The end of the world as we know it, or cultural renaissance? You decide.

The paradox between the economic disaster of the 1930s-40s and the flowering of cultural achievement in that era has been often commented upon. We get writers like Henry Miller, Ernest Hemingway, Zora Neale Hurston, TS Elliot, ee cummings, Langston Hughes, etc... And artistic movements from documentary realism to expressionism and surrealism. Not to mention the music, this was the golden age of Jazz/swing and the first time marginal genres like folk and country received much wider appreciation. And the same goes for Hollywood and theater in general. How did so much artistic creation rise out of the wide-spread poverty and despair of the first great depression?

There are many answers to that question. For example, there were WPA programs like the Federal Theater Project that funded local theater groups. There was no TV, so people were more likely to get out of their houses in search for entertainment. And 1933 saw the end of prohibition, making night clubs and dance halls possible.  

Beyond the misery produced by such economic downturns, there are other less negative effects as well. When business is slow, or non-existent, people may have more time on their hands. More time to think and create and/or more time to appreciate music, art, theater and writing--the former may also be encouraged by economic imperative, the latter motivated by a desire to escape the confines of their situation. 

Today, our cable TV and the internet are a mixed blessing. These are relatively inexpensive sources of endless entertainment, which can be a good thing when you are too broke to go out. But they are also easy, habit-forming options for unimaginative, and this could wind up being a detriment to the growth of our cultural resources, and a drag on the recovery of the economy as a whole.  But, who knows, perhaps folks will take their economic stimulus (in the form of paycheck tax reductions) and go buy a book, see a theater production or a band--supporting the artistic rebirth of the early millennium, an historical event that our great grandchildren will point to as evidence of our collective cultural sophistication and elan.  

Economic terrorism?

I was half-listening to the news the other day when a concerned security analyst mentioned that not only has the economic crisis risen higher on the priority list of security-minded government agencies and think tanks, it has surpassed terrorism as a threat to our nation. This made sense to me. Poor countries tend to be more unstable and the ensuing social unrest due to the inability of governments to promote prosperity has toppled many a regime in the past. But then the analyst began talking about economic terrorism in relation to countries like China. The idea is that China could do sneaky things like stop buying our government bonds or, worse, start cashing them in. This would in turn destabilize our already stressed economic system and lead to some unspoken cataclysm. 

There are several obfuscations going on in this line of discussion. First, through a kind of willful ignorance that borders on the criminal,  regulatory agencies in the United States government let the dogs run wild on Wall Street and in the banks for years. If there is a culprit in the current crisis, an underwriter of the current global social and economic chaos, if you will, it is the US. It seems kind of, well, predictable, that in the middle of a mess of our own creation, government officials would start fishing for a new, immediate, less tired, distraction for people to get worked up over. Second, the exact definition of economic terrorism is left open. Some say that an economic terrorist must be a non-state actor bent on wrecking havoc on our economy. Others use the term to indicate states that might use economic means to weaken our position in the world. In using the first definition, I give you Lehman, Abermoff, Stanford. In using the second, may I present the Clinton and Bush administrations. Finally, as this meltdown is really a problem with an economic philosophy that has prevailed in many countries, especially over the last twenty years, it would be more than a little ironic to begin fingering so-called communist nations like China. If there is such an animal as economic terrorism, the US would do well to adopt a more humble posture.   

When to invest?

Conventional wisdom says, "Buy low, sell high," and I have been content to do just that. As the stock market has slid repeatedly since fall of 2008, I have thought that, despite everything, I have time and the market will turn around before I am ready to cash out. So, a few weeks ago as the DOW hovered around 8500, I upped my 401K contribution. Buy cheap! But lately I have started to look my ignorance in the face. Sure, it's nice to buy low, but what happens to stocks that I own when businesses go bust? What happens to stocks that I own when they change status from blue chip to penny stocks? Or, more darkly, what happens to my nest egg if the whole thing implodes? Considering my misgivings about our collective return to the roaring 90s or the go-go 2000s, is there any wisdom in investing at all? 

Don't get me wrong, I am not one of the buy-gold-now! types, and generally speaking I am confident that after we have bled the system of its poison (bad debt, toxic mortgages, etc.) things will turn around. My hope is that the turmoil of the next few years will be, if not a positive experience (especially taken individually), for our collective betterment. We need to slow down and find value in the myriad things that cannot be purchased--I believe that our survival depends on this. That said, I am a frugal fellow and the idea of tossing my hard-earned shekels down a rat-hole makes me queasy. So, any ideas? Continue to invest? Stop investing in stocks and buy wines (actually a bad investment for me, I like wine too much) or spend my investment dollars on all manner of immediate gratification?      

Great Depression 2.0: time to get organized!

Freemarketeers are as obsolete as my old Commodore 64 (RIP). The "free" market, based as it is on speculation, exploitation and private ownership, cannot operate when the future is bleak, jobs are being lost by the millions, homes are falling into foreclosure and cars are being repossessed at historic rates (1.5 million cars and trucks in 2008, up 12% from 2007). From an social and economic standpoint, 2008 was a train wreck. To top off the dismal performance of the stock market, skyrocketing foreclosure rates and unemployment figures, it turns out that retail sales were down in December--double their projected fall to 2.7%. Retailers call the day after Thanksgiving "Black Friday" because this is the symbolic start of the holiday shopping season and the time of year when retailer first start to see profits (out of the red and into the black). With sales down 2.7% in December, it can be expected that many retailers would not have seen a profit in 2008--and with the credit markets still frozen, we should expect to see more stores closing up in the ensuing months. This leads to even more job cuts and the spiral downward continues. What is to be done?

1) Volunteerism: the more goods and services people are willing to donate to community projects, the better we'll be able to stave off the deleterious social and economic effects of the current crisis. People are already needed to staff food drives, soup kitchens and community shelters--the demand for dedicated individuals will only grow as the economy sinks.

2) Cooperative ownership of businesses: A business venture may be more feasible during economic turmoil if the rewards and risks more evenly spread across the business. This provides incentives for higher productivity in times of plenty and can entail greater job security in times of scarcity.

3) Community organizing: Government won't be able to assess or address the varied existential needs that will arise in the months to come in a timely enough manner. Communities need to organize and implement solutions to their problems. During times of economic uncertainty these issues will invariably include: unemployment, shortfalls in health care, poverty, homelessness, mental health issues, municipal transit, availability of nutritious food, crime and corruption in government... Community groups can form a bridge between a slow and possibly inadequate governmental response and eventual economic recovery.

4) Local initiatives to vie for government largess. If local government fails to address local needs, then community organizations can float initiatives for funding through other channels (state, federal, private, or through religious organizations).

Needs are only going to increase, as will the pressures of social disintegration--communities can and should take charge of these issues now. Check out http://www.volunteermatch.org/ to find organizations in your area to join. If you don't have any that meet your concern, organize one!

For the love of pizza...

We've been trying to cut back on dining out since the economy started circling the drain. With a teenage boy in the house, pizza night has become a fixture over the years. We have sought out and found many excellent pizza joints up and down the east and west coasts, but with an average of $40 a pop (not including wine), we decided to come up with a basic pizza recipe that approximates what we love about this dish: thin crust, tasty sauce and just the right amount of cheese. It is a basic cheese pizza (we're purists), but you can top it with anything you want. The dough takes a little preparation, but it's worth it. The dough recipe is actually double what you need--I freeze half for another day--so if you want just enough for the two pizzas, cut the quantities for the dough portion in half.

Dough (this will make enough for four pizzas)
1 1/2 tablespoons yeast
2 cups warm water
1 teaspoon brown sugar

Put this in a mixing bowl and give the yeast 5 minutes or so to wake up (by the time you finish mixing the flours it should be ready to go).

5 cups unbleached white flour
1 cup whole wheat flour
1 teaspoon salt
2 tablespoons oil (pref. olive oil, but vegetable oil will do)

Mix the dry stuff together and add to the wet. Incorporate the flours a cup at a time in to the yeast mixture if mixing manually. If you have a mixer with a dough hook, use that and mix all at once. Toward the end of mixing, add a little more water if the dough seems too dry and inelastic; if too wet, add more flour. Take dough out of mixing bowl and knead on a floured counter top until it becomes smooth and pliable. Scrape out the mixing bowl and lightly oil. Then place the dough in the bowl, cover with a cloth and let rise in the warmer part of the kitchen until about doubled in bulk (between 1 and 2 hours).

Sauce (make sauce and cool while the dough rises--enough for two pizzas)
1 - 28oz. can of diced tomatoes (pref. organic)
2 teaspoons brown sugar
1/2 teaspoon salt
1/2 teaspoon oregano
2 tablespoons red wine (optional)
1 chopped clove of garlic (optional)

Place all sauce ingredients into a blender and blend. Pour contents into a sauce pan and simmer on med. low for 20-30 minutes (stirring often). Take off heat and let cool.

(Once the dough is risen) At this point I divide the dough in half and knead into two rounds--one I put into a plastic bag and stick in the freezer for the next pizza night, the other I divide and knead into two rounds. Let these rounds rise on the counter for about 30 minutes.

While the rounds rise on the counter, set two racks in the middle of the oven and preheat to 500 degrees (see caution below). Take two sheet pans, flip them upside down and oil their backsides (this is the surface on which you will cook the pizzas). Take the rounds and begin to gently stretch them into rectangles. Place the rectangles onto the sheet pans and carefully stretch them out to the edges--you want the dough to be stretched very thin (it will rise in the oven). Then spoon the cooled sauce on the dough.

Cheese (enough for two pizzas)
1 pound mozzarella (shred)
4 tablespoons parmesan

Sprinkle cheeses on the pizzas. Carefully place pizzas in the oven and cook for a total 12-14 minutes, swapping positions halfway through for more even cooking (if you don't, the pizza crust on the bottom rack may over-cook). Caution: 500 degrees is really, really hot, so keep your face away from the oven when you open it and use thick, dry kitchen towels when handling the racks or pizza pans. Also, if your oven is not clean it will smoke.

When the pizzas are out, use a knife to separate pizza from pan and place liberated pizzas on cooling racks (this keeps the crust somewhat crisp). While the process may look daunting, it really doesn't take that much effort and, once preformed a few times, goes quite quick. Two pizzas easily feed our family of three with a few slices left over for the next day. Depending on grocery prices in your area, the total cost per pizza is about $3.

Laid off?

According to recent data, 2008 marks the highest annual job loss since 1945 with a total loss of 2.6 million jobs--and forecasts for 2009 are not encouraging. If you recently lost your job or lose your job this year, there are a few things you can do to make the best of an otherwise bad situation.

1) Swallow your pride. This can be the most difficult obstacle because in the US we have this undercurrent of individualism that degrades those who ask for help. If it helps, the champions of this ideology are currently in Washington DC begging for handouts to keep themselves employed. The rules have changed, it's OK to rely on others for a while; in fact, embracing the idea of mutual support over cut-throat individualism may be our only way out of this debacle.

2) File for unemployment benefits, in some instances you can do this online. Benefits vary by state so check online to find out what kind of documentation you need to file.

3) Get food stamps now. Next to housing, the monthly grocery bill will drain your resources faster than anything else. The food stamp program is now called the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), find out if you're eligible online and visit your local SNAP office.

4) Along with foodstamps, consider supplementing with food from your local food bank (this link has a great foodbank locator).

5) If you have small children (up to age 5), don't hesitate to get on the WIC program. This will ensure a monthly inflow of healthy food for the kids.

6) Finally, if you have a little land, now would be a good time to consider planting a garden. It will help you feel more self-sufficient and pulling weeds can be quite relaxing.

7) File for medicaid , SCHIP or medicare to keep you and your family healthy.

8) Consider alternate housing options. If you're mortgage is too high, try to renegotiate a lower rate with your bank (tell them that you are looking at foreclosure otherwise and that time is of the essence). If you rent or are getting out of your mortgage (selling, renting, foreclosure, etc...), start looking for either a public housing arrangement, which, depending on your location, may entail getting on a waiting list, or find an apartment with lower rent.

9) Get back on the horse. Even while arranging for low income assistance, keep up the job search. Give yourself a goal of submitting X applications per day. Hit a range of employment possibilities: now is not the time to wait for that perfect job, get out and sling hash if you have to.

10) Keep morale up at home. Nearly everyone goes through tight times during their lives. Remember that this is only temporary. In the meantime, be careful to not take frustrations out on your kids or spouse; instead, circle the wagons and be supportive of each other--more so than usual.

11) Keep a tight rein on discretionary expenditures. Eat at home or sponsor a good old fashioned potluck for a change. Use your local library for internet, DVDs (consider comedies over drama or horror, see previous point), CDs and books. Take advantage of free local festivals, concerts, plays and lectures.

12) If you find that in the midst of job-hunting and applying for government assistance you still have time on your hands, start volunteering--this will feel empowering, get you out of the house and meeting people and contribute to a society-wide effort to confront the effects of the economic downturn.

Best of luck.

The "new frugality" responsible for economic crisis?

The Wall Street Journal posted an article tagged "The New Frugality Worsens Downturn." The basic premise is that because of 2008's October surprise (i.e. the collapse of the financial sector, plunging stock market and the widespread destruction of wealth), American families, once the dynamo behind global economic growth, are beginning to save more, use credit less and live more within their means--leading to a sustained economic slump.

The author writes, "Americans, fresh off a decades-long buying spree, are finally saving more and spending less -- just as the economy needs their dollars the most." The assertions made by these kinds of statements is that the economy is sick and we need consumers to step up and do what they do best: go shopping. But this Bush-era argument is wearing thin in the days of post-Wall Street scandal. The fact is, Americans have been living far beyond their means for decades. Perhaps, just perhaps, after the illusions of wealth have all been dispelled and employment rates, car sales and stock quotes begin to reflect the reality that growth-at-all-costs is simply not sustainable, our expectations of what life is all about may also become more...reasonable. The GDP does not need to grow every quarter ad infinitum, the stock market does not owe you a 10% return on your investment each year, investment bankers do not need a 6-figure paycheck and nearly all Americans could and probably should make do with far less.

The "new frugality" is a harbinger of a society-wide adjustment of expectations. It is not a social malady, rather it is an opportunity for all of us to make conscious decisions about what kind of world we want to build on the ashes of outdated economic, ecological and social models--you know, the models that promoted the 60-hour work week, the 2-hour commute, over-scheduled kids, spouseless marriages, global warming, suburban sprawl, the collapse of innumerable species the growing gap between rich and poor, etc... No, the new propensity for families to save more and think more about what and how much they buy is an opening to a greener, more sane and sustainable future.