If there is any kind of sound financial advice available these days it is this: renegotiate your credit terms and then pay off your open accounts. Once this is done, then you can start to worry where to put all that extra money you are not paying in interest rates every month. The average number of credit cards held by Joe six pack is four; but one in ten Americans hold ten or more credit cards. Thus, according to the law of averages, there will be many folks who hold fewer than four cards and a few who hold many more.
Whatever your circumstance, it is important to renegotiate your credit terms. You can do this by calling the credit card company and haggling your interest rate from (the average) 18% to a more reasonable 10-12%. If you have a sterling credit score and a good history with the company, you may very well be able to do this. But, if you have missed payments and are having trouble staying on top of your bills, you may want to consider a credit counseling service. These places will do two things for you: 1) renegotiate you interest rates and 2) effectively take your cards away from you. If the second point sent chills down your spine, consider the wider economy for a moment.
Even the most optimistic of the Wall Street crowd are projecting a dismal next few years characterized by rising unemployment, more competition for jobs, lower wages and an historic dip in demand. In a word: recession. More levelheaded commentators are emitting far darker prognostications for the next decade or so. And the paranoiacs are certain that this is the end of the world as we know it. Whatever the case, things will be getting progressively more difficult for the average person, and the last thing we need is the vampiric siphoning off of what resources we have to pay off the interest of our credit cards (indeed the minimum monthly payment goes primarily to pay interest, which means that, even if you never use the card again, you will be carrying the balance for many, many years to come).
I recommend credit counseling. My wife and I used credit cards to make up for the shortfalls in income during our grad school years. We racked up a truly impressive mountain of debt and, about five years ago, we went on a credit diet. We surrendered our umpteen credit accounts to a trusted and reputable credit counseling service and, for a small monthly fee, they renegotiated our interest rates and set a monthly payment rate for us. So, for the last five years we have sent them between $500-$700 a month (the payment amount goes down as you pay off accounts) and they redistribute the amount to all of our creditors. As we pay off accounts, we can often keep the credit lines open--but not to use! Instead we do this to boost our credit score (yes, it's crazy, but you have to have open credit lines to get a good credit score--it seems more sensible that if you have a certain income and less credit extended to you, there would be less risk of getting into trouble over-extending yourself, but there it is...). Now we have paid off 2/3 of our original debt. It is very satisfying to watch account after account drop off the list. In addition, we are very careful now when making any credit purchase (an extremely rare occurrence).
So, my suggestion is that if you find yourself slowly sinking under the weight of your credit card bills, renegotiate or have a service do it for you, and then get out the scissors! Take a deep breath, tighten your belt and start living within your means--it won't be nearly as bad as you imagine and you will begin to develop a little of that quality we will all need in the coming years: restraint.
Check out The Motley Fool website for helpful tips for getting out of debt: http://www.fool.com/personal-finance/credit/index.aspx
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Tinfoil hatters part 2: on civilization's thin veneer
This is just a follow-up to yesterday's argument against the common survivalist mentality. One of the linchpins of the eat-thy-neighbor survivalist ethos is the idea that societal collapse is inevitable because our society is deceptively civil. The phrase you often hear is that it would not take much of a disruption (peak oil, war, pandemic, etc...) for the thin veneer of civilization (which under normal circumstances holds things together) to give way to howling mobs and general barbarity.
It is true that, in the immortal words of Bob Marley, "a hungry man is an angry man," and desperate people will often commit unthinkable acts during times of crisis. But these acts occur not because the elements of civilization are not present, they occur because people with the means and disposition to commit violence are themselves not civil. Civilization has nothing to do with infrastructure, architecture or political power, rather it arises through the regularity of civil (as opposed to barbaric or malevolent) transactions between people, often within a certain locality. It is carried in our hearts and minds and manifests through mutual attitudes of trust and benevolence. But, for survivalists, civilization merely is an impediment to their fantasies of heroism (or merely consequence). The intense individualism of some of these folks is not now, and certainly not in times of crisis, conducive to civil social intercourse. If we are lucky these people will crawl into their bunkers and leave the rest of us in peace to get by together, to repair our communities and to safeguard our collective livelihoods.
If the global financial crisis manifests itself in the most dire possible terms, we will need heroes, that is, people willing to work together for the betterment of all. As we have seen in Iraq, social disintegration can indeed lead to the rise of tribalisms and the rule of the most savage and well armed elements of society.
It doesn't have to be that way. For example, post-war Japan could have easily become the third world country we tried to bomb it into, but the people worked together to recreate communities, companies and neighborhood associations, and in 30 years they became the world's second largest economy. I don't know if, in 30 years, we will be able to say the same about Iraq. It really is up to us, to how we respond during these critical times.
So, adopt a survivalist today. Get him out of his bunker, take him for a walk around town and cancel his subscription to "guns and ammo" or "soldier of fortune." Introduce him to people and teach him that, even in troubled times, together we can create sustainable communities and a durable future.
This has been a Public Service Announcement brought to you by SGDT.
It is true that, in the immortal words of Bob Marley, "a hungry man is an angry man," and desperate people will often commit unthinkable acts during times of crisis. But these acts occur not because the elements of civilization are not present, they occur because people with the means and disposition to commit violence are themselves not civil. Civilization has nothing to do with infrastructure, architecture or political power, rather it arises through the regularity of civil (as opposed to barbaric or malevolent) transactions between people, often within a certain locality. It is carried in our hearts and minds and manifests through mutual attitudes of trust and benevolence. But, for survivalists, civilization merely is an impediment to their fantasies of heroism (or merely consequence). The intense individualism of some of these folks is not now, and certainly not in times of crisis, conducive to civil social intercourse. If we are lucky these people will crawl into their bunkers and leave the rest of us in peace to get by together, to repair our communities and to safeguard our collective livelihoods.
If the global financial crisis manifests itself in the most dire possible terms, we will need heroes, that is, people willing to work together for the betterment of all. As we have seen in Iraq, social disintegration can indeed lead to the rise of tribalisms and the rule of the most savage and well armed elements of society.
It doesn't have to be that way. For example, post-war Japan could have easily become the third world country we tried to bomb it into, but the people worked together to recreate communities, companies and neighborhood associations, and in 30 years they became the world's second largest economy. I don't know if, in 30 years, we will be able to say the same about Iraq. It really is up to us, to how we respond during these critical times.
So, adopt a survivalist today. Get him out of his bunker, take him for a walk around town and cancel his subscription to "guns and ammo" or "soldier of fortune." Introduce him to people and teach him that, even in troubled times, together we can create sustainable communities and a durable future.
This has been a Public Service Announcement brought to you by SGDT.
Monday, October 27, 2008
Not just for the tinfoil hat crowd anymore
I admit that I hold a prejudice against the separatists, the guns-beans-band aid hoarders, the end-of-days fanatics, anyone the owns or wants to build a "bunker," and any group that looks with that weird titillating anxiety toward a future apocalypse. These people have always been around and with every crisis they come out of the woodwork to pronounce with satisfaction--"the end is finally here!" We saw this with the Y2K-ers, the Revelationiacs, the nuclear holocaust survivalists, and now with the financial meltdown we hear again the warnings from paranoiacs of every stripe (stay tuned for the 2012 crowd). Many of these folks already live on the margins of society and project their personal failures and sense of alienation into a reactionary stance in relation the rest of the world. They, many of whom tend to be conservative men, deal with their loss of control over their lives, their families and their future with a narrative in which they become heroic leaders in a post-apocalyptic world. Most of these people are harmless and truly hope to contribute in the case of societal breakdown. But some are dangerous and, with their stockpiles of weapons and ammo, look forward to a day when they can enact their own predatory impulses.
This being said, I have to admit to some discomfort writing a blog that takes as its premise the same kind of future social disintegration as many of these wing nuts. I recently looked back over my past few posts and found that I begin each with a short discourse trying to justify my own alarmist tone with facts and figures from the real world. Ultimately, the fact that no one seems to know what the full effects of the global financial crisis will be, indeed we are in a period of history without precedent, urges me to err on the side of caution. So, the idea behind this blog is that things may well fall apart in near future and everyone should be 1) capable of weathering the storm for as long as it takes for boring, beautiful normalcy to return, and 2) prepared to reach out and participate, even as things get serious, in creating durable social networks to ensure that we all make it through in one piece. In the first instance I agree with the survivalists: we must be able to keep ourselves and our families clothed, fed and safe during the crisis. But in the second instance, I insist that we do not barricade our doors, sit on our horded goods and view everyone as a potential threat. If things get as bad as they could, we all need to work to build up our local economies (for example, through a local business alliance http://www.billmckibben.com/pdfs/introduce-residents.pdf); work to keep the most vulnerable in our communities clothed, sheltered and fed; form neighborhood cooperatives in which resource donations are pooled, properties joined to build large gardens, and "neighborhood watch" programs stepped up to combat the probable rise in crime; and work through larger organizations such as faith communities to export donations to other parts of the country and the world.
By reaching out and establishing viable local communities we can mitigate the presence of the gun-toting "mad-max" element which, despite their best intentions, desire the chaos that will be unleashed by the coming global depression. So, get out there and start meeting your neighbors, join a faith community, volunteer at a soup kitchen and/or join a local coop. Get out, multiply your social connections each day and fight the urge to turn inward--it's spooky in there!
This being said, I have to admit to some discomfort writing a blog that takes as its premise the same kind of future social disintegration as many of these wing nuts. I recently looked back over my past few posts and found that I begin each with a short discourse trying to justify my own alarmist tone with facts and figures from the real world. Ultimately, the fact that no one seems to know what the full effects of the global financial crisis will be, indeed we are in a period of history without precedent, urges me to err on the side of caution. So, the idea behind this blog is that things may well fall apart in near future and everyone should be 1) capable of weathering the storm for as long as it takes for boring, beautiful normalcy to return, and 2) prepared to reach out and participate, even as things get serious, in creating durable social networks to ensure that we all make it through in one piece. In the first instance I agree with the survivalists: we must be able to keep ourselves and our families clothed, fed and safe during the crisis. But in the second instance, I insist that we do not barricade our doors, sit on our horded goods and view everyone as a potential threat. If things get as bad as they could, we all need to work to build up our local economies (for example, through a local business alliance http://www.billmckibben.com/pdfs/introduce-residents.pdf); work to keep the most vulnerable in our communities clothed, sheltered and fed; form neighborhood cooperatives in which resource donations are pooled, properties joined to build large gardens, and "neighborhood watch" programs stepped up to combat the probable rise in crime; and work through larger organizations such as faith communities to export donations to other parts of the country and the world.
By reaching out and establishing viable local communities we can mitigate the presence of the gun-toting "mad-max" element which, despite their best intentions, desire the chaos that will be unleashed by the coming global depression. So, get out there and start meeting your neighbors, join a faith community, volunteer at a soup kitchen and/or join a local coop. Get out, multiply your social connections each day and fight the urge to turn inward--it's spooky in there!
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Canary in the coalmine
It is terrible turn of phrase, and I don't mean to belittle anyone caught up in the following scenario, but according to the Oct.26 Washington Post Online, food prices in developing countries are starting to be affected by the global financial crisis. The ripple is beginning to affect those least able to absorb the shock. There are two points in the article that should give us pause.
The first point: "As shock waves from the credit crisis began to spread around the world last month, China scrambled to protect itself. Among the most extreme measures it took was to impose new export taxes to keep critical supplies such as grains and fertilizer from leaving the country."
Here we see a state that has been in thrall of the open market for years, reasserting itself to feed its own people. There's nothing wrong with that, indeed protecting its populace from famine could be considered one of the most important functions of a state. But it does mean that all that good cheap food that flies around the world to stock our shelves may become scarce in the near future, driving prices up more than the cost of fuel threatened to do earlier this year.
The second point that should concern us is that, "[c]ommodity prices have plummeted in recent weeks as investors have shown increasing concern about a global recession and a drop in the demand for goods. Wheat futures for December delivery closed at $5.1625 on Friday -- down 62 percent from a record set in February. Corn futures are down 53 percent from their all-time high, and soybean futures are 47 percent lower...Such declines, while initially welcomed by consumers, could eventually increase deflationary pressures -- lower prices could mean less incentive for farmers to cultivate crops. That, in turn, could exacerbate the global food shortage."
The Wall Street Journal published something similar last week. As commodity prices fall, and production costs rise (seed, fertilizer, pesticides, etc...), there is less incentive for farmers to plant. These two points alone should convince anyone concerned by the eventual effects of the meltdown to begin to stock up on food items and sundries to take the edge off the jump in prices we'll likely see beginning next year and to avoid any kind of nightmare scenario where food scarcity really threatens our families and communities.
Here is a short list of things I would invest in now...
Starches: rice, pasta, flour, corn meal (degerminated), dehydrated potato products
Protein sources: texturized vegetable protein (TVP), beans, lentils, wheat gluten (for seitan), nuts, soy beans
Vegetables: canned tomatoes (though technically fruit I guess), really any veggies canned, pickled or dehydrated (dehydrated carrots, celery, onion and potatoes make for an easy soup base)
Fruits: anything canned, dried or dehydrated (if you have a dehydrator, now is a good time to dehydrate apples)
Dairy: dried milk, dry cheeses like Parmesan can have a long shelf life, dehydrated eggs
Misc: vegetable oil, shortening, chlorine bleach (for emergency water purification--look online for procedure), salt, sugar, spices, soy sauce, vinegar and dried herbs
Medicine: any over the counter meds like tylenol/ibuprofin, antihistimine for allergies, antibacterial cream, cough syrup, Pepto, an assortment of bandages, gauze, tape, etc...
This is just a start. But the point here is that the window for buying cheap food, in bulk--the kind that will see you and those with whom you share (hopefully you will purchase enough to contribute if need be)--is closing. Bulk items might not be within your reach by next summer, so start stuffing that pantry now.
The first point: "As shock waves from the credit crisis began to spread around the world last month, China scrambled to protect itself. Among the most extreme measures it took was to impose new export taxes to keep critical supplies such as grains and fertilizer from leaving the country."
Here we see a state that has been in thrall of the open market for years, reasserting itself to feed its own people. There's nothing wrong with that, indeed protecting its populace from famine could be considered one of the most important functions of a state. But it does mean that all that good cheap food that flies around the world to stock our shelves may become scarce in the near future, driving prices up more than the cost of fuel threatened to do earlier this year.
The second point that should concern us is that, "[c]ommodity prices have plummeted in recent weeks as investors have shown increasing concern about a global recession and a drop in the demand for goods. Wheat futures for December delivery closed at $5.1625 on Friday -- down 62 percent from a record set in February. Corn futures are down 53 percent from their all-time high, and soybean futures are 47 percent lower...Such declines, while initially welcomed by consumers, could eventually increase deflationary pressures -- lower prices could mean less incentive for farmers to cultivate crops. That, in turn, could exacerbate the global food shortage."
The Wall Street Journal published something similar last week. As commodity prices fall, and production costs rise (seed, fertilizer, pesticides, etc...), there is less incentive for farmers to plant. These two points alone should convince anyone concerned by the eventual effects of the meltdown to begin to stock up on food items and sundries to take the edge off the jump in prices we'll likely see beginning next year and to avoid any kind of nightmare scenario where food scarcity really threatens our families and communities.
Here is a short list of things I would invest in now...
Starches: rice, pasta, flour, corn meal (degerminated), dehydrated potato products
Protein sources: texturized vegetable protein (TVP), beans, lentils, wheat gluten (for seitan), nuts, soy beans
Vegetables: canned tomatoes (though technically fruit I guess), really any veggies canned, pickled or dehydrated (dehydrated carrots, celery, onion and potatoes make for an easy soup base)
Fruits: anything canned, dried or dehydrated (if you have a dehydrator, now is a good time to dehydrate apples)
Dairy: dried milk, dry cheeses like Parmesan can have a long shelf life, dehydrated eggs
Misc: vegetable oil, shortening, chlorine bleach (for emergency water purification--look online for procedure), salt, sugar, spices, soy sauce, vinegar and dried herbs
Medicine: any over the counter meds like tylenol/ibuprofin, antihistimine for allergies, antibacterial cream, cough syrup, Pepto, an assortment of bandages, gauze, tape, etc...
This is just a start. But the point here is that the window for buying cheap food, in bulk--the kind that will see you and those with whom you share (hopefully you will purchase enough to contribute if need be)--is closing. Bulk items might not be within your reach by next summer, so start stuffing that pantry now.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Surviving the global depression...with cabbages!
It is tough enough figuring out what is happening in our economy day-to-day, let alone trying to understand the full implications of its current collapse. The future is uncertain and commentators contradict each other daily in their forecasts. It is certain that the triumph of free market capitalism has faltered and will not recover as soon as its advocates wish (these people have been strangely silent these days). With the fall of Wall Street and credit markets, and with the government going out on shaky limb, it doesn't take too much of a stretch to foresee widespread (read: global) unemployment, inflation, foreclosures and businesses closing shop. Furthermore, food costs will likely begin eating up a larger portion of the family budget. To offset costs, and to take a step toward self-sufficiency, I suggest starting a garden or buying a share in a community sponsored agriculture program http://www.localharvest.org/csa/
I have decided to start a (very) late summer garden plot for cabbages, kale and collards. I have a small plot that I dug up this spring and plated with tomatoes, squash, cucumbers and peppers, only to be routed by a voracious muskrat. He, however, has not made an appearance since July--I hope he has found greener pastures than the barren weed patch he left in his wake. Cabbages take between 70-120 days to mature and do well in cooler weather. I am in Virginia and the winters here are very mild--so, I hope to have a cabbage harvest sometime between January and February. I think that individuals and families have to begin to strengthen not only their social networks, but also their self-sufficiency to better weather whatever may come. There is a good site for planting in the autumn and winter http://www.harvestwizard.com/2008/08/planting.html
Continue to stock up the pantry, and in the meantime start a winter garden. If for no other reason than to get outside and take your mind off of your dwindling retirement portfolio. There are a number of veggies that do quite well in the winter, depending on light exposure and minimum temperatures. If you are in an area that freezes, consider an investment in sun boxes (cold frames). And if you have very little land, like me, you'll want to check out "Square Foot Gardening" by Mel Bartholomew.
I have decided to start a (very) late summer garden plot for cabbages, kale and collards. I have a small plot that I dug up this spring and plated with tomatoes, squash, cucumbers and peppers, only to be routed by a voracious muskrat. He, however, has not made an appearance since July--I hope he has found greener pastures than the barren weed patch he left in his wake. Cabbages take between 70-120 days to mature and do well in cooler weather. I am in Virginia and the winters here are very mild--so, I hope to have a cabbage harvest sometime between January and February. I think that individuals and families have to begin to strengthen not only their social networks, but also their self-sufficiency to better weather whatever may come. There is a good site for planting in the autumn and winter http://www.harvestwizard.com/2008/08/planting.html
Continue to stock up the pantry, and in the meantime start a winter garden. If for no other reason than to get outside and take your mind off of your dwindling retirement portfolio. There are a number of veggies that do quite well in the winter, depending on light exposure and minimum temperatures. If you are in an area that freezes, consider an investment in sun boxes (cold frames). And if you have very little land, like me, you'll want to check out "Square Foot Gardening" by Mel Bartholomew.
Sunday, October 12, 2008
Strengthening social networks
As I mention in the previous posts, the future is uncertain, and planning for uncertainty, as difficult as that appears, is necessary for getting through the oncoming crisis. Indeed, the financial system's decline has been something of a spectator sport for many of us in the past few weeks (or months, if you've been paying attention). Any of us with money in the stock market feel the pain acutely, but if our economist kings manage to turn this all around, then worry not--we may be back up to 14,000 in a year's time, but maybe not. Those of us without much invested in the market have just been watching the carnage from afar--but not for long I think. The link between companies and the financial markets is direct, and when credit does not flow, and investments have been eviscerated, many companies will not weather the storm in the months to come. Many will go out of business and there will be mass layoffs; unemployment will rise quickly, and it is questionable whether the government will be able to handle a sudden increase in entitlements. In my city, there has been a hiring freeze in effect for about a year now, and with state budgets drying up, there is no end in sight. Unfortunately, the scarcity in government jobs (i.e. jobs that pay fairly well and tend to have good benefit packages) means that there are many of us who must do the best we can in the service sector (poor pay and no benefits). As companies trim down on operations in response to a sudden drop in demand (let's face it, folks are scared and cutting back even now), the masses of unemployed will rise along with all of the social ills that come along with unemployment: crime, mental illness, poverty, etc...
If this is the case, and we have a deterioration in social conditions in the coming years, it is more important than ever to bolster your existing social networks--we will all need to depend on one another as circumstances change. From the go-go 1990s until recently, hyper-individualism has been possible and perhaps, given the circumstances, even desirable; however, it is no longer a good idea to put so much of our time and attention on pleasing ourselves. This practice of self-indulgence has been part of the problem--many of us have over-extended ourselves on credit over the past decade or so (it was so easy to get credit cards), largely in the service of short-term self-gratification (flat screen TVs, big cars, lots of home decor, electronic devices of all sorts). It is time to start placing our shrinking resource into building the kinds of social ties and community institutions that will bolster our chances of making it through the global depression. This means re-prioritizing where we sink our money, time and energies.
I suggest a good place to start is (for those of us not already involved) joining a church. I am not a religious person: if you had asked me a year ago if I would ever consider becoming a member of an organized religion, I would have certainly said, "hell no." But times change. Churches foster strong communities through volunteer work and sustain an awareness of the needs of their neighbors. These venerable institutions can be a positive influence in the community and will help you directly if you find yourself in a difficult situation. Find a church that tends to be more inclusive and tolerant. If you have no preference, ask a church-going friend about theirs and invite yourself to the next gathering. Once you are part of a congregation, get to know folks and volunteer for church-sponsored outings or charities (soup kitchen, food bank, toys for tots). The point here is to multiply your social connections and, who knows, broaden your spiritual horizons. Churches foster dense social networks and often friendships that are connected to a larger institution and mission tend to be more durable than the connections forged at work or in chat rooms.
It is easy to find a church...just look in the yellow pages or ask around. Have an idea of what kind of church-going experience you want to have: for the fans of doctrine, saints and incense there is the Catholic Church; for those who prefer rousing sermons and lively music, look into a Baptist congregation; for lovers of diversity, try a Universalist or liberal Methodist church. Again, initially anyway, this is a means to multiply and deepen you social connections--it will allow you to depend on others in times of trouble and place you in the position to help others as they require help. If you join a congregation that preaches intolerance and hatred toward outsiders, you will be contributing to the many challenges that will beset our communities and families in the months and years to come. We will come through the global depression with stronger communities and intact institutions from which we will all benefit; perhaps we will also gather deeper, more meaningful social relationships in the process--enriching our lives more than the consumer goodies that we bought to fill the social vacuum that characterized, for many of us, the last last few decades.
Remember, civilizations fall when societies dissolve into factions--and when civilizations fall, people suffer all the abuses of power that tend to arise in the absence of civility. This does not mean that you you should not prepare yourself (see the previous post on stocking up on dry goods etc...); but withdrawing into your bunker and adopting a "survivalist" mentality is not helpful to anyone, not even yourself (who wants to live like a paranoid hermit?). With a strong social network, a sense of empathy and a desire to alleviate the suffering of those around us--these things will see us all through this mess together--and perhaps we'll be better of for it.
If this is the case, and we have a deterioration in social conditions in the coming years, it is more important than ever to bolster your existing social networks--we will all need to depend on one another as circumstances change. From the go-go 1990s until recently, hyper-individualism has been possible and perhaps, given the circumstances, even desirable; however, it is no longer a good idea to put so much of our time and attention on pleasing ourselves. This practice of self-indulgence has been part of the problem--many of us have over-extended ourselves on credit over the past decade or so (it was so easy to get credit cards), largely in the service of short-term self-gratification (flat screen TVs, big cars, lots of home decor, electronic devices of all sorts). It is time to start placing our shrinking resource into building the kinds of social ties and community institutions that will bolster our chances of making it through the global depression. This means re-prioritizing where we sink our money, time and energies.
I suggest a good place to start is (for those of us not already involved) joining a church. I am not a religious person: if you had asked me a year ago if I would ever consider becoming a member of an organized religion, I would have certainly said, "hell no." But times change. Churches foster strong communities through volunteer work and sustain an awareness of the needs of their neighbors. These venerable institutions can be a positive influence in the community and will help you directly if you find yourself in a difficult situation. Find a church that tends to be more inclusive and tolerant. If you have no preference, ask a church-going friend about theirs and invite yourself to the next gathering. Once you are part of a congregation, get to know folks and volunteer for church-sponsored outings or charities (soup kitchen, food bank, toys for tots). The point here is to multiply your social connections and, who knows, broaden your spiritual horizons. Churches foster dense social networks and often friendships that are connected to a larger institution and mission tend to be more durable than the connections forged at work or in chat rooms.
It is easy to find a church...just look in the yellow pages or ask around. Have an idea of what kind of church-going experience you want to have: for the fans of doctrine, saints and incense there is the Catholic Church; for those who prefer rousing sermons and lively music, look into a Baptist congregation; for lovers of diversity, try a Universalist or liberal Methodist church. Again, initially anyway, this is a means to multiply and deepen you social connections--it will allow you to depend on others in times of trouble and place you in the position to help others as they require help. If you join a congregation that preaches intolerance and hatred toward outsiders, you will be contributing to the many challenges that will beset our communities and families in the months and years to come. We will come through the global depression with stronger communities and intact institutions from which we will all benefit; perhaps we will also gather deeper, more meaningful social relationships in the process--enriching our lives more than the consumer goodies that we bought to fill the social vacuum that characterized, for many of us, the last last few decades.
Remember, civilizations fall when societies dissolve into factions--and when civilizations fall, people suffer all the abuses of power that tend to arise in the absence of civility. This does not mean that you you should not prepare yourself (see the previous post on stocking up on dry goods etc...); but withdrawing into your bunker and adopting a "survivalist" mentality is not helpful to anyone, not even yourself (who wants to live like a paranoid hermit?). With a strong social network, a sense of empathy and a desire to alleviate the suffering of those around us--these things will see us all through this mess together--and perhaps we'll be better of for it.
Thursday, October 9, 2008
A little darker now....
The Dow falls 678 points today. People are looking for the bottom and hoping for a quick recovery--I hope they find it and we do turn it around sooner rather than later. But things being what they are, the collapse may continue to surpass our expectations. There is some consensus that this economic event is not the same as the 1929 crash--this assertion is being used to mollify panicked investors; but, what is not being discussed is that today, unlike during the great depression, we are globally connected with many other ailing national economies. This may be a global race to the bottom as the world's major economies pull one another down. The friction between failing national economies may begin to play out on a larger scale than the current situation between England and Iceland. England wants to sue Icelandic banks that folded and took millions of pounds of British savings with them. Now that they have to keep themselves afloat, what happens when China starts cashing in all of the treasury bonds that they have been buying to keep the US in cash during our overdrawn Bush years? It's all a big question mark at this point, but it could get ugly. What is plain is that currently we are not experiencing the brunt of the crisis in terms of a dropping dollar and rising prices. I always thought my grandparents were a little odd for doing things like stashing canned goods under their beds, or patching worn out sweaters, or making so many things from scratch. Their frugality was born of some rough times during the Great Depression.
There is no way to tell if we will be compelled to make the same kinds of sacrifices as my grandparents, but now would be a good time to start thinking about that space beneath your own bed. Should food shortages occur, you would want to have a full pantry to offset periods of scarcity. It's a little extreme, but the Mormons supposedly store a year's worth of food for just such emergencies. There is a calculator that counts up the pounds of food you need for a year's supply-- http://lds.about.com/library/bl/faq/blcalculator.htm --this is something to start thinking about now, when stores are posting great sales to thin their stock in anticipation for lower sales next year. Dried goods and canned goods are ideal for long storage. Here's a link about the shelf life of different foods: http://standeyo.com/News_Files/Food/Extend_Shelf_Life.html
There is no way to tell if we will be compelled to make the same kinds of sacrifices as my grandparents, but now would be a good time to start thinking about that space beneath your own bed. Should food shortages occur, you would want to have a full pantry to offset periods of scarcity. It's a little extreme, but the Mormons supposedly store a year's worth of food for just such emergencies. There is a calculator that counts up the pounds of food you need for a year's supply-- http://lds.about.com/library/bl/faq/blcalculator.htm --this is something to start thinking about now, when stores are posting great sales to thin their stock in anticipation for lower sales next year. Dried goods and canned goods are ideal for long storage. Here's a link about the shelf life of different foods: http://standeyo.com/News_Files/Food/Extend_Shelf_Life.html
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
What this all means...
The problem is this: nobody knows exactly what is happening right now except that it is unprecedented in terms of its scope and intensity. The global economy is wobbling toward a deep recession, if not depression (the definitions for these things are inexact, but the rule of thumb seems to be that a depression is where GDP declines 10% or more), as our leaders scramble to gain some kind of control over the plunging stock market and frozen credit markets. I started this blog because people who jump to the "Armageddon" scenario tend to be borderline paranoiacs who are all too ready to stockpile ammunition and Slim-Jims for the "end times." On the other hand, the more level-headed experts have been consistently wrong about the intensity and scope of the current crisis; it has simply gone from bad to worse. I haven't heard anyone address questions concerning our national 10 trillion dollar debt, especially at a time where GDP will be decreasing; nor have I heard what the impact of the Fed's money printing spree will have on inflation. Taking into account the current frigidity of the credit markets, rising unemployment, inflation worries and, now, the global nature of this crisis--it appears that we may be in for a long downward spiral in terms of the average person's standard of living. This blog is intended as a forum for the exchange of ideas that explore what a long-term economic recession or depression will feel like and what to do to avoid its more dire effects (starving in the streets, etc).
In the coming weeks I will be writing on a variety of topics related to the event that we are now witnessing in the news, and particularly how to make it through with our collective sanity and personal budgets intact. These posts will fall broadly into five categories:
1. Understanding Historical Perspectives: Your (great-) grandma, who lived through a global depression in 1930s, has just usurped your financial advisor (who told you in July to just "ride it out" in the stock market) for prime insights into getting by in the coming years.
2. Strengthen Social Networks: If you can count on one hand the number of significant relationships in your life, now would the time to join a church (the life-affriming kind, not the Revelations kind), book club, food co-op, knitting circle, hiking club, etc...
3. Personal Finance: Lose the credit cards, start saving--we're not going to shop our way out of this one.
4. Household Management: Tips on getting by on the cheap!
5. Skill Sets: Your mastery of mediated realities (i.e. video games, web surfing, weekly TV shows) will avail you not in the days ahead.
Whatever this crisis means, we'll get through it together if we take some time to change behaviors that may have made sense six-months ago, but may indeed be destructive in the months and years to come.
Be safe, be sane, let's get to work!
In the coming weeks I will be writing on a variety of topics related to the event that we are now witnessing in the news, and particularly how to make it through with our collective sanity and personal budgets intact. These posts will fall broadly into five categories:
1. Understanding Historical Perspectives: Your (great-) grandma, who lived through a global depression in 1930s, has just usurped your financial advisor (who told you in July to just "ride it out" in the stock market) for prime insights into getting by in the coming years.
2. Strengthen Social Networks: If you can count on one hand the number of significant relationships in your life, now would the time to join a church (the life-affriming kind, not the Revelations kind), book club, food co-op, knitting circle, hiking club, etc...
3. Personal Finance: Lose the credit cards, start saving--we're not going to shop our way out of this one.
4. Household Management: Tips on getting by on the cheap!
5. Skill Sets: Your mastery of mediated realities (i.e. video games, web surfing, weekly TV shows) will avail you not in the days ahead.
Whatever this crisis means, we'll get through it together if we take some time to change behaviors that may have made sense six-months ago, but may indeed be destructive in the months and years to come.
Be safe, be sane, let's get to work!
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