Canary in the coalmine

It is terrible turn of phrase, and I don't mean to belittle anyone caught up in the following scenario, but according to the Oct.26 Washington Post Online, food prices in developing countries are starting to be affected by the global financial crisis. The ripple is beginning to affect those least able to absorb the shock. There are two points in the article that should give us pause.

The first point: "As shock waves from the credit crisis began to spread around the world last month, China scrambled to protect itself. Among the most extreme measures it took was to impose new export taxes to keep critical supplies such as grains and fertilizer from leaving the country."

Here we see a state that has been in thrall of the open market for years, reasserting itself to feed its own people. There's nothing wrong with that, indeed protecting its populace from famine could be considered one of the most important functions of a state. But it does mean that all that good cheap food that flies around the world to stock our shelves may become scarce in the near future, driving prices up more than the cost of fuel threatened to do earlier this year.

The second point that should concern us is that, "[c]ommodity prices have plummeted in recent weeks as investors have shown increasing concern about a global recession and a drop in the demand for goods. Wheat futures for December delivery closed at $5.1625 on Friday -- down 62 percent from a record set in February. Corn futures are down 53 percent from their all-time high, and soybean futures are 47 percent lower...Such declines, while initially welcomed by consumers, could eventually increase deflationary pressures -- lower prices could mean less incentive for farmers to cultivate crops. That, in turn, could exacerbate the global food shortage."

The Wall Street Journal published something similar last week. As commodity prices fall, and production costs rise (seed, fertilizer, pesticides, etc...), there is less incentive for farmers to plant. These two points alone should convince anyone concerned by the eventual effects of the meltdown to begin to stock up on food items and sundries to take the edge off the jump in prices we'll likely see beginning next year and to avoid any kind of nightmare scenario where food scarcity really threatens our families and communities.

Here is a short list of things I would invest in now...

Starches: rice, pasta, flour, corn meal (degerminated), dehydrated potato products

Protein sources: texturized vegetable protein (TVP), beans, lentils, wheat gluten (for seitan), nuts, soy beans

Vegetables: canned tomatoes (though technically fruit I guess), really any veggies canned, pickled or dehydrated (dehydrated carrots, celery, onion and potatoes make for an easy soup base)

Fruits: anything canned, dried or dehydrated (if you have a dehydrator, now is a good time to dehydrate apples)

Dairy: dried milk, dry cheeses like Parmesan can have a long shelf life, dehydrated eggs


Misc: vegetable oil, shortening, chlorine bleach (for emergency water purification--look online for procedure), salt, sugar, spices, soy sauce, vinegar and dried herbs

Medicine: any over the counter meds like tylenol/ibuprofin, antihistimine for allergies, antibacterial cream, cough syrup, Pepto, an assortment of bandages, gauze, tape, etc...

This is just a start. But the point here is that the window for buying cheap food, in bulk--the kind that will see you and those with whom you share (hopefully you will purchase enough to contribute if need be)--is closing. Bulk items might not be within your reach by next summer, so start stuffing that pantry now.